My Official #RockHall2022 Predictions

It’s hard to believe we are here. We just inducted the Class of 2021 less than two months ago. Yet, all signs point to a January meeting for the Nominating Committee with the nominees being released in February, as was the case last year.

I haven’t given you all a great deal of Rock Hall content lately on this blog, so thank you for bearing with me. The Also-Rans podcast has taken up a great deal of my time, in addition to preparing for the Christmas season. I have also been on a few other podcasts, including Nick’s Rock in Retrospect podcast and Joe and Kristen’s Who Cares About the Rock Hall project.

I think that we can view the Class of 2021 induction ceremony as a qualified triumph. It would have been nice if Rundgren wasn’t a dick about being honored. And some women among the 7 side-category entrants would have been nice. But the show–from what I hear–went off without a hitch, attracted a boatload of special musical guests to the only induction city in flyover country, and seemed like a love-fest that honored some of music’s greats. We can all quibble about what might have gone differently, but I’d be hard pressed to think of a Rock Hall season that went this well.

And a lot of that comes from an exceptionally good ballot to work from. John Sykes’ new leadership has paid dividends: a more diverse ballot, and using side categories to clear the massive backlog of people who should be in the Hall. The Hall’s leadership is clearly pushing the “if you’re in, you’re in. The category doesn’t matter” line. I guess that’s fine. For me, though, I cut my Rock Hall teeth doing the sporcle quiz of performer inductees, so my own instincts are to view that route as the higher form of recognition.

At any rate, I’m going to get my official picks in early. This allows my ideas to influence subsequent Rock Hall Pundits’ analyses going forward–and maybe, just maybe influence someone in a position to actually do something about the ballot. On the other hand, it means that Questlove can tweet something 24 hours from now that completely upends my predictions. Right or wrong, here they are: one First Year Eligible (guess who?), seven returning nominees, and eight “snubs” or previously passed-over acts appearing for the first time.

Eminem: Arguably the world’s greatest rapper, and now pasta restaurant magnate, Eminem is pretty close to a sure thing– to the point that Class of 2022 has been thought of by many as “Eminem’s year.” A mid-career renaissance a few years ago with “Rap God” revived a sense of him as a working artist and no nostalgia act. I wonder if Eminem’s homophobic lyrics will hurt him, though. Probably not–lots of LGBT+ celebrities have pardoned him. But they generally weren’t the ones bullied by teenagers listening to Eminem in the early 2000s.

Soundgarden: They were first nominated for the Class of 2020; lots of folks predicted a return the following year, but that didn’t happen. Nevertheless, 90s grunge is going to get a backlog fast if the Hall doesn’t act, and if we don’t want to be inducting Alice in Chains as an Early Influence in twenty years, they need to get to work. Earlier this month, they placed a not-terrible #23 at the Hall’s fan vote kiosks.

Iron Maiden: Placing significantly better, at #2 is Iron Maiden, appearing on the ballot for the first time last year. The Hall is in a rut with metal; even non-metalheads like me recognize it. I’m on record via the Who Cares podcast saying that I think Judas Priest is currently the biggest snub. Yet, the Rock Hall may want to go the Iron Maiden route…there is a more rabid fan base and nominating them gives them an excuse to say “visitors to the Hall want them on the ballot…and we listened!” Especially since I have a hard time seeing them nominate #1 finisher Motley Crue (I know there’s some umlauts in there, but I can’t be bothered to look up where they are.)

New York Dolls: Listening to the episode where Joe and Kristen cold-call Rock Hall voters, the reverence for The New York Dolls was palpable and I was surprised how many people were voting for them, or strongly considering them. In terms of actual output, the band is only a notch above “could have been a contender”. In terms of influence, the impact of this androgynous proto-punk, semi-glam outfit is incalculable. Basically, if you were in New York in the early 70s, New York Dolls were gods whose aureate feet briefly deigned to touch the ground. And last time I checked, the hoagie is still ordered and eaten in New York.

Chaka Khan: The pundits’ consensus seems to be that Chaka Khan will get inducted through our now-expanded use of the side categories–most probably Musical Excellence. And there’s a kind of pretzel logic that gets you to that point; her work as a solo artist and with Rufus creates a collective canon of work that transcends what either act did discreetly. Her induction may also have a bit of pretzel logic about it: if you go back really, really far in Rock Hall bylaws, you’ll see them talk about a ‘7-year-rule’ where if you are nominated seven years in a row, apparently you get in automatically. Nobody has talked about it for years, and it’s possible it was never an actual policy, but I will say this…either Rufus or Chaka Khan has been nominated in each of the past six years…

Mary J. Blige: Some thought it would be Salt N Pepa, some thought Queen Latifah, some thought Missy Elliott in a not-that-far-off day in the future. But it was one Mary J. Blige who became the first female hip-hop artist nominated by the Rock Hall. And I’m just arrogant enough to remind everyone that I was one of the only Rock Hall people to have predicted her appearance. This is a corner of late twentieth century popular music that the Hall has to address if it wants to keep its cultural credibility. They may very well go with Queen Latifah or someone else, but my hunch is that the women of hip-hop will be represented by Blige on the ballot for the foreseeable future. Alas, her chances of being in the top 5-6 finishers is lower than it ought to be.

Rage Against the Machine: The group’s hatred of corporate government has an upside: they will always be relevant! They have been nominated three of the four years they have been eligible, and if we are looking at essential 90s acts that need to be in, Rage is absolutely on that list. Tom Morello also did the honors of inducting Randy Rhoads this year and remains a key presence on the Nominating Committee, and isn’t one to diminish his band’s accomplishments.

Pat Benatar: This one is close to my heart: so far she’s the only artist I’ve seen since COVID times descended upon us. And Pat put on a stellar show here in Rochester, with only a three-piece band backing her up. A lot of us were gratified when she showed up on the ballot for the Class of 2020. And then we were shocked when she wasn’t voted in. And then we were shocked when she wasn’t nominated for the Class of 2021. But I think there was some strategery involved: nominate Pat and the Go-Gos, and rightly or wrongly, you run the risk of them taking away votes from each other. And last year, as they rode high from their documentary, was clearly The Go-Gos’ year. I expect a return from Pat, who did a triumphant interview on CBS Sunday Morning that was very gracious about the Rock Hall and who has a musical coming out soon. She’s also #3 on the kiosks.

Duran Duran: Everything is aligned perfectly for this 80s pop mainstay. They have reunited and have been getting some high-profile gigs, including the Tonight Show and the Billboard Music Awards. The Nom Com is stocked with MTV and VH1 veterans who understand the visual motifs that Duran Duran exploited in those heady early years of the music video. And most importantly of all, they got their own episode on Nick’s Rock in Retrospect podcast. Duran Duran offers a key opportunity to get 50-year-old women named Tammy to show up at the Rock Hall Museum.

Outkast: I don’t think it is outside the realm of possibility for the Rock Hall to go bold and nominate three hip-hop or rap artists on this ballot. Eminem. Mary J. Blige. And Outkast. It’s a little bit weird that they haven’t been nominated yet: you could make a case that they performed at least two of the ten best songs from the Naughts. Big Boi and Andre 3000 haven’t done much together lately, but they remain on good terms and a feel-good reunion seems like it could be in the cards. The “unavoidable 90s acts that are now eligible list” is growing: Outkast, Smashing Pumpkins, Weezer, Oasis, Beck, No Doubt, Mariah…As someone who would never, ever vote for Eminem, Outkast would very probably get my vote, for what little it matters.

Sade: Remember when Fela Kuti was nominated last year? Nobody gave him a chance and he didn’t get inducted, but boy– the international community took a shine to the polyrhythmic performer, and catapulted him to #2 on the fan vote, besting formidable opponents like Carole King, Foo Fighters, Jay-Z, and Iron Maiden. It brought into relief the massive international audience the Rock Hall can cultivate if they play their cards right. Sade also shares a Nigerian background with Fela, is a legend in rap and R&B circles, and was winning Grammy awards deep into the 21st century. Her sophisticated and cosmopolitan take on soft rock has also elicited a great deal of critical acclaim. It’s pretty easy to see someone on the Nom Com making a compelling case for her.

The B-52s: I’ll be honest: I am having a hard time figuring out which of the B-52s/Eurythmics/Kate Bush branch of aesthetically bold artists who peaked into the 80s will get the nod. I’m going with the B-52s, since they also share some ersatz qualities with Devo, who showed up on last year’s ballot. And I don’t really see the point in nominating Devo during a year where the ceremony won’t be held in Cleveland. Mostly, I am pulling for them because of how happy it would make Nick, given his previous advocacy on their behalf. I also want the queerest Rock Hall induction possible to make Eminem very, very uncomfortable.

The Commodores: This seems like a gimme, since Lionel Richie came out and gave the induction speech for Clarence Avant– and Richie is enough of a multi-generational phenomenon that he would generate lots of positive buzz for the hall. Not only did he have a solo career that reached giddy heights, but more recently he’s been a meme and is watched by millions every week as a judge on American Idol. More than that, The Commodores were a really great outfit and navigated a compelling path from early high-quality funk to some of the defining ballads of the Carter years. I debated whether to pick Commodores or Kool & the Gang, and then I debated Commodores vs. Lionel solo– but for a feel-good reunion that makes good television, I think this is the way to go. Kool & the Gang have better musicianship and were clearly the superior act in terms of live performances, but they may have to wait another year.

Cher: How can a short write-up do her justice? It seems every year there is a legendary can’t-fail-to-get-inducted woman who should have been in the Hall fifteen years ago. Baez to Simone to Janet to Whitney to Tina and Carole. Since Dolly Parton is probably going to get in as an influence, I think it’s fair to say that Cher is next in line– and her eighth-place ranking on the kiosks accentuates that. Her career has spanned from the early 60s to today with shows that redefined live performances. She’s served as a visual icon of the Studio 54 era, is (like Tina) a cornerstone around which drag is built, and was still scoring top ten hits a few years ago with ABBA covers from her cinematic turn in the Mama Mia! sequel. If you are going to complain about songwriting and instruments, you’re missing the point. Snap out of it.

The Monkees: Mickey Dolenz once joked that The Monkees would go on the road until there was just one left, and that guy would simply tour as The Monkee. Well, that’s where we are at now. With the death of Michael Nesmith just this month, Dolenz becomes the sole surviving Monkee. At this point, there’s no way that they can nominate this group without egg on their face. But it would have been no less true a decade ago: “why couldn’t you have done this when Davy Jones was alive?” It’s time to just rip the band-aid off and face the criticism that the Rock Hall did the Prefab Four dirty since they became eligible in the early 90s. With the Nom Com less snobby, more poptimist, and more closely tied to MTV–which couldn’t have existed without the Monkees in a number of ways–I don’t think this nomination is far-fetched.

Alanis Morissette: You know the drill. A musical. And a documentary. All of this has cast Morissette in a new light. Look, I was in middle school when Jagged Little Pill came out and it was everywhere. Inescapable. I’m a big fan of “zeitgeist” acts that capture the feel of a time and place, and she passes that test. It was personal and confessional in a way that hadn’t quite been done on quite that level in the grunge era, where grievances tended to be more abstract or societal. Perhaps it is true that she only has one legendary album, but the same is true of The Zombies and Carole King, both of whom I’ve lobbied extensively for. All the drama between Alanis and the documentary’s producers only keeps her in the news cycle and reinforces her brand.

So, to recap, my predictions are:

Alanis Morissette
Chaka Khan
Cher
Duran Duran
Eminem
Iron Maiden
Mary J. Blige
New York Dolls
Outkast
Pat Benatar
Rage Against the Machine
Sade
Soundgarden
The B-52s
The Commodores
The Monkees

What do you think? Make your own predictions in the comments, or tell me who you think would get inducted if this was, in fact, the ballot.