the art of shortlisting

It has been a joy to read comments by my internet-friends Jim and Jared.  Both considered, in response to my last post, the effects of vice-presidential choices on a candidate’s fortunes.  So, given how much buzz over Mitt Romney’s running-mate is circulating over the internet, I thought that it might be fun to explore the “short lists” of the other candidates of the modern era, starting with 1960.  By “short list”, I mean the penultimate list, as far as we can tell, of running mates considered before a final choice was made.  So, I do not include wild “long-shot” suggestions considered by a candidate’s team that were ultimately rejected as risky or unrealistic (i.e. a Reagan-Ford “Dream Ticket” in 1980, McGovern considering Walter Cronkite in 1972, George H. W. Bush looking at Clint Eastwood in 1988, etc.)

In some cases, the number is as low as 3, in some cases as high as 7. Sometimes, it is easy to figure out the shortlist– in 1976, for example, Jimmy Carter announced his shortlist to the public, and made known his meeting with the contenders.  In other cases, their shortlists are open secrets, or revealed to the public after the fact.  (Dukakis, for instance, baldly stated who was on his shortlist in a recent interview.)  In other cases, more guesswork is involved– Nixon in 1968 comes to mind, given his notorious secrecy.

And you can divine a certain strategy or an array of options before each candidate.  Obama’s 2008 choices vacillated between experienced-but-unpredictable (Biden), great resume but boring (Bayh), and new faces to reinforce the change theme (Kaine).  Mondale in 1984 seemed to desperately want a candidate who was not a white man– hence a number of female and minority candidates.

Note also how balance plays a role.  Carter exclusively looks at non-Southerners and non-Governors with foreign policy credentials.  Dukakis looks to the Sun Belt, while Ford goes for younger, fresher faces not tied to Watergate.

So, here are the lists.  In most cases, the winning choice is listed first.

If you feel like commenting– who would you have chosen?

Barack Obama, 2008:

• Joe Biden (Senator from Delaware)
• Evan Bayh (Senator and Former Governor, Indiana)
• Tim Kaine (Governor of Virginia)

John McCain, 2008:*

• Tim Pawlenty (Governor of Minnesota)
• Mitt Romney (Former Governor of Massachusetts)
• Joe Lieberman (Democratic Senator from Connecticut)

John Kerry, 2004:

• John Edwards (Senator from North Carolina)
• Dick Gephardt (Congressman from Missouri)
• Bob Graham (Senator and Former Governor from Florida)

George W. Bush, 2000:*

• John Danforth (Former Senator from Missouri)
• Frank Keating (Governor of Oklahoma)
• George Pataki (Governor of New York)
• Tom Ridge (Governor of Pennsylvania)

Al Gore, 2000:

• Joe Liberman (Senator from Connecticut)
• John Edwards (Senator from North Carolina)
• Dick Gephardt (Congressman from Missouri)
• John Kerry (Senator from Massachusetts)
• Evan Bayh (Senator and Former Governor from Indiana)

Bob Dole, 1996:

• Jack Kemp (Congressman from New York)
• John McCain (Senator from Arizona)
• John Engler (Governor of Michigan)?
• Tommy Thompson (Governor of Wisconsin)?
• Tom Ridge (Governor of Pennsylvania)

Bill Clinton, 1992:

• Al Gore (Senator from Tennessee)
• Harris Wofford (Senator from Pennsylvania)
• Bob Kerrey (Senator from Nebraska)
• Bob Graham (Senator and Former Governor from Florida)
• Lee Hamilton (Congressman from Indiana)

George H. W. Bush, 1988:

• J. Danforth Quayle (Senator from Indiana)
• Lamar Alexader (Former Governor of Kentucky)
• George Deukmejian (Governor of California)
• Pete Domenici (Senator from New Mexico)
• Tommy Thompson (Governor of Wisconsin)

Michael Dukakis, 1988:

• Lloyd Bentsen (Senator from Texas)
• John Glenn (Senator from Ohio)
• Dick Gephardt (Congressman from Missouri)
• Al Gore (Senator from Tennessee)

Walter Mondale, 1984:

• Geraldine Ferraro (Congresswoman from New York)
• Dianne Feinstein (Mayor of San Francisco)
• Henry Cisneros (Mayor of San Antonio)
• Lloyd Bentsen (Senator from Texas)
• John Glenn (Senator from Ohio)
• Michael Dukakis (Governor from Massachusetts)
• Tom Bradley (Mayor of Los Angeles)

Ronald Reagan, 1980:

• George H. W. Bush (Former CIA Director, U.N. Ambassador, Congressman)
• Paul Laxalt (Senator and Former Governor of Nevada)
• William Simon (Former Secretary of the Treasury)
• Howard Baker (Senator from Tennessee)
• Richard Lugar (Senator from Indiana)

Jimmy Carter, 1976:

• Walter Mondale (Senator from Minnesota)
• Ed Muskie (Senator and Former Governor of Maine)
• Frank Church (Senator from Idaho)
• Peter Rodino (Congressman from New Jersey)
• John Glenn (Senator from Ohio)
• Henry “Scoop” Jackson (Senator from Washington)
• Adlai Stevenson III (Senator from Illinois)

Gerald Ford, 1976:

• Bob Dole (Senator from Kansas)
• Anne Armstrong (Ambassador to Great Britain)
• Tom Connally (Former Secretary of the Treasury and Governor of Texas)
• Howard Baker (Senator from Tennessee)
• William Ruckelshaus (Former Attorney General)

George McGovern, 1972:*

Richard Nixon, 1968:

• Spiro Agnew (Governor of Maryland)
• John Volpe (Governor of Massachusetts)
• Thurston Morton (Senator from Kentucky)
• Howard Baker (Senator from Tennessee)
• Robert Finch (Lt. Governor of California)

Hubert Humphrey, 1968:

• Edmund Muskie (Senator and Former Governor of Maine)
• Fred Harris (Senator from Oklahoma)
• Terry Sanford (Governor of North Carolina)

Barry Goldwater, 1964:*

John Kennedy, 1960:

• Lyndon Johnson (Senator from Texas)
• Stuart Symington (Senator and Former Air Force Secretary from Missouri)
• Henry “Scoop” Jackson (Senator from Washington)

Richard Nixon, 1960:

• Henry Cabot Lodge (U.N. Ambassador and Former Senator from Massachusetts)
• Walter Judd (Congressman from Minnesota)
• Thurston Morton (Senator from Kentucky)
• Fred Seaton (Secretary of the Interior)
• Jim Mitchell (Secretary of Labor)

*To clarify the missing lists and exceptions:  I cannot for the life of me find Barry Goldwater’s “shortlist”, and most of the anecdotal evidence suggests he picked RNC Chair and Niagara County, NY congressman William E. Miller because “he got up Lyndon Johnson’s craw.”  For McGovern, through the primaries, Ted Kennedy was his first and only choice, and was devastated when he would not join the ticket for the sake of the party.  People who rejected to join the ticket included Ed Muskie, Hubert Humphrey, Gaylord Nelson, Walter Mondale, Reubin Askew, and Abraham Ribicoff.  When all these turned him down, he narrowed the choice to Tom Eagleton and Boston mayor Kevin White.  In 2008, by all accounts, Palin was not one of the finalists, but was chosen by McCain at the last minute in a high-risk, high-reward strategy that will give future political analysts something to mull over for years.  As the recent book “The Angler” suggests, Dick Cheney was in charge of George W. Bush’s vice-presidential search committee, and may conducted the search in such a way that he could argue that all the candidates were flawed, and he ought to be considered instead.

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