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I’m on a bit of a #RockHall2018 kick, so why stop at evaluating the nominees? Let’s also explore some options regarding who might give the induction speeches for the various artists on the ballot. This can be a tricky thing. First choices may be unavailable or unwilling to come (what- you think the Rock Hall didn’t try to reach out to Bob Dylan when inducting Joan Baez?) And on occasion the Hall steps in it by choosing an inductor who is unknown to the honoree; that happened when the Black Keys were chosen to induct Steve Miller. Miller had never met them before and wasn’t sure who they were!

I tried to select persons who would be on good terms with the inductee- either an influence of theirs, or someone influenced by them, or a friendly contemporary. When possible, I tried to shake up race and gender considerations. The 2016 ceremony was partly a near-disaster because only white male acts inducted the white male acts, and a black man inducted a group of black men (NWA). It didn’t confound stereotypes or show the complexity of rock’s history. To the contrary, some of the better speeches over the years had inductees of a different race and/or gender than their toastmaster. (Think Patti Smith inducting Lou Reed, Questlove inducting Hall & Oates, and Tom Morello inducting KISS).

So here are my best guesses:

Bon Jovi: I had some problems with this one; there aren’t very many great artists working today who took their cues from Bon Jovi. I considered Adam Lambert and Bryan Adams, but ultimately landed on two men who carried on the legacy into the 90s: John Rzeznik and Robby Takac of the Goo Goo Dolls. They toured together in the early 2000s, and understood their instinct for anthemic stadium rock and it’s appeal to teenage girls.

Kate Bush: Bjork and Peter Gabriel would both work- and might be coaxed into a performance. But Bush started out as a protege of David Gilmour, and she should be inducted in the same manner.

The Cars: There is no shortage of 21st century artists who harnessed The Cars’ melodic instincts and embrace of electronic backdrops. Weezer, though, stands out among them- right down to the backward-looking glances at 50s rock that inspired “Buddy Holly” just as it inspired “My Best Friend’s Girl.” Rivers Cuomo, come on down.

Depeche Mode: Let’s get Trent Reznor. Depeche Mode was an important antecedent to Nine Inch Nails, and this would hopefully grease the skids for NIN’s own induction into the Rock Hall.

Dire Straits: It writes itself: Sting. You definitely want him to sing “I want my MTV” don’t you?

Eurythmics: So– soulful singing that experiments with electronica. Florence Welch from Florence and the Machine would fit that bill nicely, giving the Hall a contemporary artist to include in the ceremony.

J. Geils Band: This is hopefully a theoretical exercise, but Chris Robinson, the frontman for The Black Crowes, is a big fan. They also toured together a handful of years ago.

Judas Priest: Hear me out before you slam me.  Let’s get one of England’s loudest bands- Spinal Tap- to induct Judas Priest. Wouldn’t it be great to have Michael McKean and Christopher Guest in wigs and outrageous regalia on stage inducting their fellow British metal royalty? And since Spinal Tap was famously bad heavy metal, they are well-poised to show us what good heavy metal really is. And the guys in Judas Priest, I’m sure, would be good sports about all this, and are big fans of This Is Spinal Tap.

L.L. Cool J.: I am afraid that the Rock Hall will portray Cool J as more ‘street’ than he actually was, if he were to be inducted. Let’s acknowledge him for what he is- a very good, historic rapper whose chief contribution isn’t fighting the power, or picking fights with the police, but making rap a mainstream presence that transcended racial lines. Queen Latifah had a similar significance, and the two starred together amicably in the film Last Holiday.

MC5: Fred Smith’s nickname lent itself to Sonic Youth, which would make Kim Gordon an extraordinary choice for this task. (Patti Smith, another woman who was involved in a recent Rock Hall ceremony, might also be involved as Fred’s widow.)

The Meters: Again- the odds of The Meters getting inducted are so low as to make this a mere thought experiment. But I’d go with two artists who used The Meters as backup, and know better than anyone else how good they are. Dr. John and Patti LaBelle would be my two choices.

The Moody Blues: A tough one. The temptation is to double-dip with someone like Peter Gabriel or go to the progressive rock well with someone like Ian Anderson. But Alan Parsons would also do a fine job- and has worked with this evergreen band on one of their perennial Moody Blues Cruise outings.

Radiohead: Possibly the biggest name getting inducted in 2018 deserves an equally big name giving their speech. Two artists who have inspired Thom Yorke would both do an extraordinary job: Michael Stipe (who hit it out of the park inducting Nirvana) and Tom Waits.

Rage Against the Machine: It’s only fitting that someone else who pointed fingers and challenged an unjust system through his music should do the honors. Morello’s now-collaborator Chuck D of Public Enemy would be an apropos choice indeed.

Rufus w/ Chaka Khan: So…Rufus’s keyboard player was David “Hawk” Wolinski. In the late 1970s, he happened to write a handful of songs with…Danny Seraphine. Yup. The former Chicago drummer surprised everyone in the Barclays Center with a funny, warm, and utterly profane speech when his band finally made it into the hall. Let’s bring him back to the stage to induct this funky R&B outfit.

Nina Simone: This is another joint induction- but I’d lobby strongly for Elton John and Mary J. Blige to join forces. Elton fundamentally knows his shit about Simone’s life– he even named his piano Nina and recorded a version of “Young, Gifted, and Black” when he was cutting cheap soundalike records for discount labels in the late 60s. Blige, for her part, was originally contracted to play Nina Simone before scheduling delays led to her losing the part to Zoe Saldana. Together, with Elton on the keys and Blige at the microphone, they could potentially give the performance of the night. (They already worked together on this kickass version of “I Guess That’s Why They Call It The Blues.”)

Sister Rosetta Tharpe: You know who listened to Tharpe as a young girl? And not only listened, but felt empowered to take guitar lessons and find ways to bring gospel and rock together? Mavis Staples. That’s who.

Link Wray: Robbie Robertson just took part in a documentary explaining Wray’s preeminent role in Native American contributions to rock and roll. It seems like the former guitarist for The Band should do the honors.

The Zombies: For many years, The Zombies were a forgotten band following their breakup. But in the deepest, darkest, late 70s, Paul Weller, the Modfather himself, remembered the lessons learned from Odessey in Oracle– which he frequently cites as his favorite album.

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Now we have had a few days to let the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame’s nominees percolate a bit, and we’ve had some time to reflect on their merits. I’d like to continue my coverage, as is my tradition, by looking at each of the nominees in turn, and evaluating them in three areas: one is my simple, highly subjective ranking of how much I like them, which I will call preference. I’ll also attempt to more objectively evaluate each nominee on their worthiness to join the rock and roll greats in Cleveland. Finally, I’ll weigh in on the likelihood of their induction this year. Before I begin, I’d like to give a shout-out to Philip over at Rock Hall Monitors- I heavily borrowed this format of discussing the nominees from him.

With 19 nominees again this year, there’s no time to waste. Let’s get down to it.

Bon Jovi (Preference: 11, Worthiness: 18, Likelihood: 3) Well, the weird extended feud- which seems to have included Bon Jovi pulling their swag from the Rock Hall- seems to be over. Bon Jovi was nominated before- for the Class of 2011- but fell short. The fact that, say, Darlene Love, got in that year and they didn’t speaks volumes. The voters didn’t like what they were selling. But that was before the fan vote. As long as the fan vote has been there, its winner has gotten in- even if, in the case of KISS, we couldn’t track down an actual Rock Hall voter who picked them. I’m not saying it’s rigged or anything- I’m really not- but let’s just say the Hall has an incentive to induct Bon Jovi. The bad publicity of the almost inevitable fan vote winner failing to get inducted is one reason. The good publicity of uniting the band with estranged guitarist Richie Sambora is another. Still- if there was ever a time that a fan favorite might not get in- this would be the one. I still think they are a near-lock. Journey got in- but they weren’t on the same level of hackery and critical hatred and contempt from their contemporaries as Bon Jovi. We’ll see.

Kate Bush (Preference: 6, Worthiness: 13, Likelihood: 16) I think I predicted her a few years ago, never taking that prospect very seriously. Well, here we are! Kate Bush is one of the very best songwriters of her era, and has a place in British pop history as having performed the first #1 both written and sung by a woman (“Wuthering Heights”). Her oeuvre, very much like an avant-garde playlet set to music, wasn’t everybody’s cup of tea. (It is my cup of tea, though. “The Man with the Child in His Eyes” is one of my favorite tracks by any performer.) Yet, she stands out as an artist among the artists listed here. Unfortunately, she was much bigger in the UK than in the USA, and the Hall’s voters definitely tilt American. Moreover, the Hall must be aware that she will almost certainly be a no-show to the ceremony: she is a famously unwilling traveler, and took 35 years between concerts prior to her 2014 engagements in London. Moreover, she’s competing with Eurythmics in the arty new wave women category- and frankly, she’s just not the icon that Annie Lennox is.

The Cars (Preference: 4, Worthiness: 5, Likelihood: 5) With the exception of Chaka Khan, this is the only act on here that has been placed on the ballot each of the last three years. The Cars are in a sweet spot: lots of classic rock staples, but lots of critical love. Later baby boomers love them, but whichever Gen X music writers are voters probably view them highly as well. There’s also no shortage of modern acts who are fans of their work, keeping them relevant today.   But they might face the same issue that plagued them the last two years: being the sixth or seventh favorite act of too many voters, and not quite getting their box ticked.

Depeche Mode (Preference: 19, Worthiness: 10, Likelihood: 13) I’ll say this for Depeche Mode: they probably had more influence on what music sounds like today than anyone else on this list. Taking Kraftwerk’s embrace of electronica and achieving top 40 success, they were a major stadium act of their day.  They are fully deserving of Rock Hall induction, even if their music is much darker and not quite as melodic or organic as what I would prefer in my own listening habits. Acts of their caliber, though, have trouble getting in. While Depeche Mode isn’t quite alternative, the fact that The Smiths or The Replacements didn’t get in sniffing distance of induction doesn’t bode well, nor does Nine Inch Nails’ failure to get in during their two nominations.

Dire Straits (Preference: 3, Worthiness: 4, Likelihood: 6) Well, here was a surprise! Dire Straits were one of those acts that fell under the radar, never really coming up in any list of egregious snubs. And yet, now that they are up for consideration, the case for them seems evident. Mark Knopfler was one of the great rock guitarists of his era, they made some pioneering music videos, and- frankly- they stand out for me in terms of crafting fine rock and roll more than any other act on the ballot. Listen to their songs, and you get poetic slices of life with first-rate musicianship: “Espresso Love,” “Telegraph Road,” “Romeo and Juliet,” “Sultans of Swing.” And come on…you know you want Sting to come out and do “Money for Nothing” at the ceremony. This was a great, great choice, and they just might make it through, even on a competitive ballot like this year’s.

Eurythmics (Preference: 5, Worthiness: 9, Likelihood: 7) I knew if I kept predicting them, I would eventually be right! Eurythmics have a number of qualities that commend themselves to an easy induction process. The hall loves soulful singers, and Annie Lennox is probably the best singer on the ballot, depending on your feelings about Chaka Khan. She took the sonic palette of new wave and infused it with depth and humanity. Dave Stewart, for his part, has worked with the Heartbreakers, Ringo Starr, Stevie Nicks, Mick Jagger, Daryl Hall, and plenty of others. The hall has also given VH1 and MTV veterans a stronger presence on the Nom Com (and presumably the Voting Committee too) in recent years, and Eurythmics certainly made the most of the music video format.

J. Geils Band (Preference: 17, Worthiness: 19, Likelihood: 11) Ah, geez. Someone on the committee loves these guys, because this is their fifth appearance. By all accounts they were a very fine live band and I’m willing to look past their somewhat embarrassing string of 80s hits. I don’t think they suck or anything, but in my own judgment, they just don’t clear the bar of excellence or influence or even record sales to have even the remotest case for the Rock Hall. Nevertheless, I’m not willing to write off their chances. They have a “your favorite band’s favorite band” thing going for them, and voters loved blues acts enough to induct two of them in 2015. But J. Geils- essentially Chic without the charm or the pity votes- probably isn’t joining Stevie Ray and Paul Butterfield in the hall this year.

Judas Priest (Preference: 13, Worthiness: 6, Likelihood: 12) It seems like just last year, we were debating who would be next metal act now that Deep Purple was in. Some said Iron Maiden, some solo Ozzy, others noted Dave Grohl’s affinity for Motorhead. Instead, it was Judas Priest, in my opinion the most deserving of that lot. Judas Priest has been safely in my top ten Rock Hall prospects in both the 2015 and 2017 itinerations. But look…it took Deep Purple three tries to get in and they were considered the most egregious Rock Hall snub in some quarters. Hardly any one outside the metal community feels that way about Priest. They are an eminent metal band, and unlike others on this list, they are genuinely honored and delighted to have been nominated. I hope they get in one day, but this just doesn’t feel like their year. I’m sure they have Eddie Trunk’s vote, but it isn’t going to be enough.

L. L. Cool J (Preference: 18, Worthiness: 8, Likelihood: 8): Well, LL Cool J has the rap and hip-hop genres all to himself on the ballot this year (although Rage as a foot in that river). He has been feted by the Kennedy Center, but will it be enough? Two rap acts have gotten in during the last two years, but NWA was a proud iconoclast benefitting from a bestselling movie, and 2pac was a cultural icon in the conversation for the best rapper of all time. LL Cool J seems a little…safe after these two. And there may very well be “rap fatigue” among the voting body that still isn’t 100% sold on the genre. Having said that, LL Cool J has to be considered a contender on any ballot he’s on, but his chances seem a bit middling this year.

MC5 (Preference: 15, Worthiness: 15, Likelihood: 18) Tom Morello’s influence surfaces here as well, with one of his favorites earning their third nomination. This band is very much like a secret handshake among rock nerds and political iconoclasts. Despite a short heyday, they made history with their notorious manager John Sinclair, and their rough-hewn records and performances influenced everyone from My Chemical Romance to Sonic Youth. Don’t expect an induction this year, though: if it took several nominations for The Stooges, for example, to get in, MC5 isn’t making it with this many classic bands on the ballot. Plus, they are competing with RATM and Nina Simone as the most politically charged act on the list this year.

The Meters (Preference: 10, Worthiness: 17, Likelihood: 19) My respect for The Meters has grown exponentially since the day they were last nominated four years earlier. I hadn’t even heard of The Meters at the time, and therefore assumed that they didn’t deserve to get in. I was mistaken. Although they rank only 17th in terms of deserving nomination, I can’t say enough how much respect I have for their funky beats, halting and jerky rhythms and distinctive New Orleans sound. Having said all that, if Chic couldn’t get in under any number of scenarios, don’t expect The Meters to fare better.

The Moody Blues (Preference: 7, Worthiness: 2, Likelihood: 1) When I declared The Moody Blues as my #1 Rock Hall prospect back in 2015, that was probably…too much. I felt like I needed to put a ~real~ rock and roll band in the top spot, and so didn’t consider Janet or Kraftwerk or Carole King or someone for that honor like I should have. Nevertheless, The Moody Blues are one of the most famously egregious Rock Hall snubs ever. Even ten years ago, people were listing them alongside Chicago, Kiss, Genesis, Neil Diamond, Alice Cooper, and the like. Well- those artists are now in. And it’s the Moody Blues’ turn to join them.

Nina Simone (Preference: 2, Worthiness: 1, Likelihood: 4) Some people think she’s not quite rock and roll, or that she would be more fitting in an Influence or Musical Excellence category. I sort of understand, but ultimately come down strongly on inducting Nina as an artist. Like Miles Davis or Johnny Cash, she was a bridge between genres. She readily covered rock and roll standards in a jazzy nightclub style, and rock and rollers covered her songs too (most famously, “Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood.”) In her career, she branched out to record some of the most direct civil rights anthems of her time. While, say, Odetta’s songs prayed for peace, Simone pointed fingers and demanded justice in “Mississippi Goddamn” and “I Wish I Knew How It Would Feel To be Free.” It’s no wonder that her influence continues through such figures as Beyonce, Lauryn Hill, Alicia Keys, and Mary J. Blige- any of whom would happily drop everything to help induct her in Cleveland. Dave Davies from The Kinks publicly tipped his hand with an enthusiastic “for God’s sake” preceding his intent to vote for her. I think that’s prescient. Do you honestly think the surviving Animals won’t pick her? Do you honestly think Paul McCartney- who credits her “I Put A Spell On You” for the sultry “I love you, I love you, I love you” bridge in “Michelle” won’t find a spot for her? Or Elton John, who named his damn piano after her? Or Mavis Staples? Or surviving members of the Family Stone? Or the Furious Five? Or the social justice-friendly critics and executives who put Joan Baez in last year? Don’t be silly. Nina Simone is getting in.

Radiohead (Preference: 9, Worthiness: 3, Likelihood: 2)  Back in the late 1940s, William Randolph Hearst gave a famous directive to his vast media empire: Puff Graham. A network of radio stations and newspaper outlets then spent months establishing Billy Graham as the nation’s evangelist par excellence, handing him fame and success- albeit in recognition of his considerable skills as a revivalist. That’s not unlike the relationship between the Rolling Stone Industrial Complex and Radiohead. For years, they’ve told us that The Bends and OK Computer are two of the greatest albums of their time. They found a space for them among their 100 Immortals (and believe me, they were very stingy about including post-1970s acts.) All of this was deserved, no doubt- but it didn’t hurt to have friends in high places. Their acclaim has translated to some of the most well loved records of the late 90s- and if the voters could put Green Day in during their first year, Radiohead should be a piece of cake.

Rage Against the Machine (Preference: 14, Worthiness: 7, Likelihood: 9)  I appreciate Rage Against the Machine, which gave my generation a hyper-politicized group as earlier generations had MC5 or Country Joe and the Fish. Rage was far more popular than either- to the point of developing a near sub-culture around themselves, and any discussion of great albums from the turn of the millennium will have to include The Battle of Los Angeles. In a different year with different contenders, I would be optimistic about their prospects. But now? They face competition from Radiohead for the “newbie who has to get in on the first ballot” stakes. They face competition from MC5 and Nina Simone as the most “woke” act available. Morello is an amazing guitarist, but he’s up against Mark Knopfler and Link Wray. Too much pressure from too many quarters- an unlucky ballot for RATM.

Rufus, feat. Chaka Khan (Preference: 12, Worthiness: 16, Likelihood: 15) I’m curious how Rufus got tied to Chaka Khan again- the last two years, it was just Chaka by herself. If anything, this makes Khan’s prospects even more unlikely- people don’t really remember Rufus, and they are more tied to the funkier end of disco, while Khan’s solo career put her into more favorable diva territory. It’s distantly possible they’ll get in, but if it took Donna Summer five tries before her death made her nigh-inevitable, I can’t see Chaka Khan having better luck. It’s a shame- Rufus and Chicago collaborated frequently, and I’d love to hear Danny Seraphine make another profane induction speech.

Sister Rosetta Tharpe (Preference: 8, Worthiness: 12, Likelihood: 17) I’m still a little puzzled by Tharpe’s inclusion on the ballot. She is, beyond dispute, a key piece of rock and roll history– but her heyday was in the 40s and early 50s. I’m not exactly sure what the Nom Com is up to– are they greasing the skids for an Early Induction award (of which Tharpe is wholly deserving?) Did someone else get the Early Influence slot and this was a consolation prize? Some other folks have said “nobody will vote for her, because they know she’ll get in as an Early Influence.” I don’t agree–it’s giving Rock Hall voters too much credit for knowing how their institution works. I doubt very many rock legends have the brain-space to remember Freddie King and Wanda Jackson’s backdoor inductions between touring, buying HD televisions, and remembering to give their former mistresses hush money.

Link Wray (Preference: 16, Worthiness: 14 Likelihood: 10) Link is back! His family has been great to me over the years, and I am delighted for them. His case may be helped by the recent documentary (I’m not sure how many people knew he was part Native American when he was last nominated for the Class of 2014). Nevertheless, like that ’14 ballot, he’s up against A-list 90s acts, and a bevy of never-before-nominated classic rock favorites. Yet as a 50s guitar hero whose stock and trade was rough and ragged instrumentals, he might very well sneak in by virtue of his uniqueness- there isn’t anyone like him on the ballot this year.

The Zombies (Preference: 1, Worthiness: 11, Likelihood: 14) Look, I’m in the tank for The Zombies. They are one of my favorite artists. Odessey and Oracle is one of my ten favorite albums of all time. If I were starting a superband, I’d pick Rod Argent as the keyboard player and work backward from there. I want them to get in, and in a different year, they’d make it. Put them on the ’15 ballot instead of Paul Butterfield, and I have a hunch they’d earn enough votes to get inducted. It’s unfortunate, because they are more musically excellent and more significant in the long term than either The Dave Clark Five and The Hollies- each of whom has been in the hall for the better part of a decade. Unfortunately, last year they were up against fellow psychedelic keyboard-heavy act Steppenwolf. And this year, they are up against their contemporaries The Moody Blues, who are more famous and had more longevity. (To emphasis the point of them being contemporaries, remember that “Nights in White Satin” and “Time of the Season” were recorded within weeks of each other.) Maybe someone like Terry Sylvester of The Hollies will vote for both, but I’d imagine most people will diversify their ballots a bit more– which puts The Zombies in a precarious place.

So…where does this go from here? If I had to predict the Class of 2018, I think Moody Blues, Radiohead, and Bon Jovi are gimmes, although I’d love to be proven wrong on Bon Jovi. I’m pretty confident about Nina Simone for reasons I detailed in her section. And I’ve got a good feeling about The Cars. For a radio-friendly, critically-acclaimed group, I just can’t see them falling short a third time. But that sixth spot, assuming there is one, is giving me fits. Dire Straits and Eurythmics seem like the two most logical choices. But I would give an outside chance to LL Cool J, J. Geils Band, Rage Against the Machine, and Link Wray. The others strike me as very long shots. In a contest between Dire Straits and Eurythmics, I’d have to predict the former. Knopfler is a top-shelf guitarist, and his songwriting and storytelling is their secret weapon. The hall loves those features, as the relatively painless inductions of Leonard Cohen, Tom Waits, Randy Newman, and Bill Withers all suggest. the problem is that this gives us a class very similar to last year’s: a bunch of classic rock mainstays, a first-year-eligible act or two, and just one woman and one artist of color. (In fact, in this case, they would both be the same person- Nina Simone!)

Who am I voting for on the rockhall.com fan vote? Well, The Zombies and Nina Simone are two pet projects of mine, and two of my favorite artists of all time. Of course I’m voting for them. I want to usher The Cars in after three tries, so they are in, too. I would round it out with Dire Straits and Eurythmics, two of my favorite artists who are also among my top 15 Rock Hall prospects. While I really appreciate The Moodies, I’m so confident of their chances that I don’t think they need my vote. Kate Bush and Sister Rosetta were in contention as well. I’m fine making Radiohead and RATM wait another year. That’s not a very balanced vote on my part- too many acts that peaked in the early 80s- but I can live with that. (For comparison, my votes last year went to: Pearl Jam, Janet Jackson, Joan Baez, Kraftwerk, and The Zombies.)

What do you think? Am I on the right track with my directions? Have a pegged your favorites wrong? Let me know in the comments- until then, we have two and a half months of speculating to do!

 

The news leaked a little early, but around midnight on 5 October, we learned the identity of our nominees for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame’s class of 2018. There were plenty of returning nominees: The Cars, LL Cool J, Link Wray, The Zombies, Depeche Mode, MC5, Rufus feat. Chaka Khan, J. Geils Band, The Meters, and Bon Jovi. We also have a collection of snubs receiving their first nomination. Two of them- Sister Rosetta Tharpe and Nina Simone- were theoretically eligible for the Rock Hall’s first class back in 1986. They are rounded out by Moody Blues, Dire Straits, Eurythmics, Judas Priest, and Kate Bush. Radiohead and Rage Against the Machine earned a nomination on their very first year of eligibility.

Wow! That’s quite a group. First impressions? It’s hard to go wrong with any of these. Almost. J. Geils is a joke, and I’m not fond of the Bon Jovi pick for reasons I’ll get in to…but you could make a fine class out of this batch if done properly. Lots of longtime snubs are addressed in acts like The Moody Blues. Metal-heads will be vindicated by Judas Priest finally earning a nomination.

A few things stand out, though. Others have noticed this- but this ballot is very light on R&B. (Remember, R&B is narrower than “black artists who don’t rap.”) Simone and Tharpe aren’t really in that genre, as jazz and gospel performers respectively. That leaves  Rufus/Chaka and The Meters. That’s…pretty astonishingly low, especially since these are two of the least likely acts to actually get enough votes. Compare that to the ballot for the Class of 2015 where Chic, War, The Marvelettes, The Spinners, and Bill Withers all vied against one another.

Two other omissions strike me as odd: Nine Inch Nails and Janet Jackson. I would have bet the farm on the Rock Hall moving heaven and earth to induct Reznor in Cleveland, a town he is deeply rooted in. For whatever reason, that didn’t happen. Janet was also passed by- an odd choice given how well her nomination was received during the last two years and the guaranteed ratings boost she would give the HBO special.

And then there’s Sister Rosetta Tharpe. I have mixed feelings about this. I’m thrilled that she’s now on the Rock Hall’s radar; she was listed as #1 when I ranked Early Influence candidates this summer, and that’s just the issue. Her best work was in the 1940s and early 1950s– an Early Influence by any fair assessment. The prospect of her getting in as an artist isn’t unprecedented- Muddy Waters is in as an artist too, and he peaked during that same period. But it’s very weird, and raises questions about whether this nomination is a bad faith effort to just grease the skids for an Early Influence or Musical Excellence nod. In fact, it was unusually ballsy for the Rock Hall to nominate a total of three acts whose first record came out before 1960: Tharpe, Nina Simone, and Link Wray.

And, frankly, I’m not thrilled with the Bon Jovi pick. I’m talking an awful lot of smack, given that I included them in my 100 Rock Hall Prospects, but this continues a depressing trend of choosing uber-commercial acts who don’t clear the Musical Excellence bar.  The Journey nomination seemed just a bit fishy to me last year, and Bon Jovi coming back- suspiciously after mending ties with the Rock Hall and re-donating their swag for exhibition- also raises concern. Look- if you like hair bands, great. Good on you. But musically, Bon Jovi is not in the same class as the other 18 musicians on this ballot. It’s true. And yet, they are currently leading the Rock Hall’s fan poll. That poll didn’t exist when they were first nominated back in 2011. But since it was initiated, the winner of the fan poll has always been inducted. In fact, at least three of the top five artists who win the fan poll get in. That’s disconcerting when black and female artists with greater musicianship tend to sink like stones in the public poll as hoards of suburban baby boomers vote for their favorites- look at the Meters and Rufus and Kate Bush rounding out some of the last places. If the trend holds and Bon Jovi gets in, who is next– Duran Duran? Def Leppard? Foreigner? Do they all get in before Kraftwerk and The Smiths too? Where does it end?

Finally, it’s hard to see who had the most influence on making this ballot. Tom Morello’s hand can be seen clearly in MC5 and Judas Priest’s nominations- both artists the RATM guitarist advocated for. But Questlove’s involvement cannot be readily perceived, nor can David Grohl’s. Those expecting a Soundgarden nomination were disappointed.  Similarly, my theory about Paul Shaffer nominating Warren Zevon also turned out to be bunk.

But let’s re-examine my predictions. I am proud to say that I got nine right: Radiohead, Rage Against the Machine, The Zombies, Eurythmics, LL Cool J, Link Wray, Nina Simone, J. Geils Band, and Moody Blues. Irritatingly, lots of artists I’ve predicted in other years showed up this year when I didn’t pick them: Judas Priest, The Meters, Kate Bush, Dire Straits, and MC5 all fell into that category. Troy Smith got an impressive ten right- congratulations!

For all my complaining, my two pet favorites, The Zombies and Nina Simone, are both nominees this year. If nothing else, I’m very grateful for that.

Hopefully this weekend, I’ll flesh this out, as is my custom, by rating each of the nominees on three scales: 1) how much I personally like them; 2) how deserving they are of induction; 3) how likely they are to be inducted.

Oh, and as a point of trivia- the top ten artists in my 2017 update to my Rock Hall Prospects have all now been nominated at least once: Moody Blues, Kraftwerk, Nina Simone, Carole King, Janet Jackson, Judas Priest, The Spinners, Dire Straits, and The Smiths. In fact, everybody in my top 15- with the sole exception of Mariah Carey- has  been nominated as well.

So…we are now about 4 or 5 weeks out from the Rock Hall announcing its nominees. At this stage in the game, we’ve heard predictions from almost all of the Rock Hall monitors with blogs or websites of their own. I encourage you to click on links taking you to the well thought-out, persuasively argued predictions from Troy Smith, Michelle Bourg, E-rockracy, Tom Lane, Donnie Durham, Charles Crossley, and the star around which we orbit, Future Rock Legends. Lots of other people made predictions on the Future Rock Legends board or in my comments section, but I had to draw the line somewhere, or a fun weekend activity would devolve into tedious number-crunching. Please accept my apologies if your picks weren’t included in this analysis.

One name is notably absent from this list, and that is Philip, who hosts Rock Hall Monitors. Earlier in the summer, Philip wrote a conscientious post encouraging the Nominating Committee to put out a ballot consisting entirely of women and/or persons of color as a means of addressing endemic discrimination in our society. It got a lot of pushback from many quarters, but Philip stuck to his guns. Rather than post a “protest prediction,” he abstained from making choices this year. I likewise urge you to read what he has to say.

To recap, my own picks were: Radiohead, Rage Against the Machine, LL Cool J, Nina Simone, The Zombies, Janet Jackson, War, J. Geils Band, Soundgarden, Eurythmics, Nine Inch Nails, Link Wray, The Smiths, Warren Zevon, Roxy Music, The Shangri-Las, The Spinners, Moody Blues, and PJ Harvey.

Each list had its own character, as always. Troy favored lots of returning nominees, especially from last year’s set. Charles’s list is almost a half-protest: he has 8 picks nobody else chose, and lots of choices from rock’s earlier years. I tended to focus on who has been a bit more high-profile as of late, and developed a two-years-out-of-three philosophy that is probably absolute nonsense.

But all of these lists share some common assumptions: more and better female nominees, a wide range of genres, and a strong presence from Tom Morello, Questlove, and newcomer David Grohl. With the exception of Troy, we all think the Hall will tone down the strong 70s classic rock flavor of the last two years.

Of course, we don’t know if there are more new members, or if some older members of the nominating committee have been shown the door, or left of their own volition. But that is what makes this so fun! Can we master the mind of the notoriously unpredictable Nominating Committee?

Between the 8 of us who made predictions, we agreed unanimously on four artists: Radiohead (the obvious first-year nominee), LL Cool J (a returning nominee who seems like the logical choice for the next rap act), Janet Jackson (a guaranteed ratings boost and one of the greatest hitmakers not in the hall), and Link Wray (who is projected to benefit from the new Rumble movie and Stevie Van Zandt’s brazen endorsement.)

At a near-unanimous 7? Everyone pegged The Cars except for me.

6 out of the 8 think Rage Against the Machine will be on the ballot on their first eligible year, and The Moody Blues will be on the ballot after a quarter-century of eligibility!

5- a narrow majority- are banking on 80s alternative mainstays The Smiths; the Nine Inch Nails; (both nominated for the Classes of 2015 and 2016 but passed over this year) and in the wake of Chris Cornell’s death, Soundgarden.

Half of us can foresee Eurythmics, Warren Zevon, and Kraftwerk. Kraftwerk shows up about half the time, and David Letterman gave a very public nod to Zevon in last year’s ceremony. But for half of us to pick Eurythmics because it basically “feels right?” That’s…interesting.

Three votes for a lot of acts- many of them returning nominees who may or may not show up: The Spinners, War, The Zombies, Roxy Music, Joe Tex, and Bad Company.

A tiny minority of two predictions each for: Nina Simone, Carole King, J. Geils Band, The Marvelettes, Los Lobos, Joe Cocker, Pat Benatar, and Black Flag.

And, of course, there are some elliptical choices. I was alone in suggesting The Shangri-Las and PJ Harvey. Michelle’s were Judas Priest (a popular choice last year), Carly Simon, The Commodores, and Big Star. Troy was delightfully all over the map with MC5, Boston, Peter Frampton, Donny Hathaway (!), Chaka Khan, and Steppenwolf. E-rockracy went with one-and-done nominees Jane’s Addiction and Procol Harum, alongside Motorhead, Foreigner, X, Todd Rundgren, and Alanis Morissette. X was an especially clever choice that would satisfy punk fans and those clamoring for more women in the hall. I wish I had thought of it. Donnie was alone in suggesting Patsy Cline (the only pure country artist on any list), Mary Wells, Kool & the Gang, and the late, lamented George Michael. Charles Crossley had an armada of unique picks: John Coltrane, The Guess Who, The Clovers, Wu-Tang Clan, Roy Brown, Cyndi Lauper, Bon Jovi, and Big Mama Thornton. FRL went with an artist who has been generating a lot of chatter on the site’s message boards (Stevie Nicks) as well as Chuck Brown, Billy Preston, and finally Harry Nilsson in the singer-songwriter slot. Tom Lane didn’t have any picks that weren’t shared (and it’s not like he was being derivative; he was one of the first to list his predictions! Go figure.)

Recent nominees that none of us predicted include The Cure, The Replacements, Depeche Mode, Bad Brains, The Meters, The JBs, and Sting. Other noteworthy absences were Willie Nelson, A Tribe Called Quest, The MonkeesSmashing Pumpkins, any blues act whatsoever aside from J. Geils, Mariah Carey with nearly twenty #1 hits, and the recently deceased Glen Campbell.

What do you think, readers? There are some great picks I wish I had thought of: X, Joe Tex, Stevie Nicks…and I have a funny feeling about The Guess Who this year. But every year, the Nominating Committee surprises us and makes us consider an artist that nobody saw coming. At any rate, in a little over a month, we’ll see who was right.

who would you see?

My friend and fellow Rock Hall guy, Donnie, posted an interesting question on Facebook. If you could go back in time and see any five artists perform in each decade– who would you pick? Here’s my answers.

1950s:
1. Peggy Lee: a great, versatile talent we don’t talk about today. You wouldn’t have wanted to hear “Fever” live in some badly lit nightclub?
2. Tom Lehrer: Arch, sarcastic, and smarter than everyone in the audience.
3. Harry Belafonte: The calypso craze made Belafonte perhaps the first black teen idol to make it into the mainstream market.
4. Little Richard: Undoubtedly the best showman from rock and roll’s pioneer generation (sorry Elvis), Little Richard’s show would have been gospel and flimflam all rolled into one sexually ambiguous ball of energy.
5. Sam Cooke: One of my favorite singers at a time when he was turning gospel into soul.

1960s:
1. Hamburg-era Beatles: Even McCartney and Starr will tell you the band stopped trying on stage once the screams and shrieks made them inaudible. Instead, I want to see five Beatles on uppers in the Top Ten Club, slowly honing their craft and becoming the greatest rock and roll band ever. I might also try to make out with Astrid if Stu isn’t watching.
2. Aretha Franklin: She’s the Queen of Soul. You think I’m wasting one of my picks on The Dead?
3. James Brown: Brown. At the Apollo. Not to be missed.
4. Nina Simone: I’d give anything to watch her act vacillate between easy lounge music and prophetic condemnation of Jim Crow.
5. Sly & the Family Stone: When they had their shit together, they were the greatest band of their time.

1970s:
1. Elton John (Captain Fantastic era): I saw him a few times since the mid-90s, but I would have rather seen him wearing feather boas, playing loads of deep tracks, and with the full range of his soaring tenor voice intact.
2. Linda Ronstadt: As her Parkinson’s worsens, I realize this is another act I’ll never see live IRL. Instead, take me back to the 70s, with her powerful cover versions and the best pipes in the Top 40. (Also, 1974-era Ronstadt is my celebrity crush.)
3. Allman Brothers: Rock and roll’s greatest (and most disciplined) jam band.
4. The Who: They say that put on the best concert ever in the city of Buffalo at Rich Stadium. The rain starting coming down the minute they began “Love Rein O’er Me.”
5. Parliament-Funkadelic: Let’s see who won that epic battle between parliament’s “get down” and “get up” factions.

1980s:
1. Queen: Was there any greater frontman than Freddie Mercury at the height of his powers?
2. Michael Jackson: Or any all-around performer better than Jackson at the height of his?
3. Bruce Springsteen: I was going to put Guns N Roses in this spot, but screw them. I’ll take a three-and-a-half-hour spiritual experience at the Meadlowlands.
4. Kool & the Gang: Multiple people tell me that this was the best concert they ever went to. I have to see for myself.
5. Dire Straits: Mark Knopfler is currently sitting at the top of my “I need to see this guy before I/he dies” list.

1990s:
1. Nirvana
2. TLC
3. Jimmy Buffett: when Parrothead-mania was still in effect, but he wasn’t overcharging for concert tickets yet
4. A Tribe Called Quest: I’d love to have seen the rap group I most respect.
5. Great Big Sea

2000s:
1. Amy Winehouse: One of the greatest voices of her generation, gone too soon.
2. Enter the Haggis
3. Lady Gaga
4. Alicia Keys
5. Macy Gray

2010s:
1. Sara Bareilles: 
2. Mumford and Sons: There are places where emergent Christians have written masses centered around “Sign No More.”
3. Florence & the Machine
4. Zac Brown Band
5. Aloe Blacc: His take on Lennon’s “Watching the Wheels” blew me away. Should me way more famous than he is.

The story of our lives is written in the music we hold dear. It’s true. Most artists have something akin to Picasso’s “blue period” or Sinatra’s “Capitol years” signaling a particular epoch in their development. Likewise, most listeners have a “college phase” or a “breakup era” or a “dad rock turn” where their habits take some kind of twist that speaks to the changes in one’s lives. As I take stock of the changes in my life over the last five years: getting married, publishing a book, a spiritual turn toward progressive Christianity, I realize that a signal change has happened to me as a listener of rock and roll. After more than fifteen years of deep fandom in which I listened to every droning saxophone solo and chivalrously defended them against their manifold critics, I have fallen out of love with Chicago.

Ah, Chicago. Ever since I could drive, they were among my very favorites. Being a Beatles fan is no special virtue. Everyone– well, all except the sour contrarian- likes The Beatles. It’s square one for any familiarity with contemporary popular music. Similarly, my abiding love for Elton John was hardly eccentric either. Perhaps I faced some pushback during my teenage years when “haha, Elton’s gay!” passed for witty repartee. But being conversant in Elton John’s music was more of a blessing, even if it took a while for it to feel that way. Most of my meager success in life has hinged on getting 55-year-old middle-managers in human resources named Debbie to feel sorry for me, maternally supportive towards me, or see some glimmer of potential in me. There is no quicker way to get into Debbie’s good graces than a robust conversation about Elton John. None.

But Chicago? Being a millennial Chicago fan took balls. Defending their greatness when pushed by record collectors, hipsters, punks, and Big Star fans named Gabe was a challenge that I relished. It all began when I was in a freshman in high school. After seeing them by accident in 1997 (they were touring with The Beach Boys and we had no other choice), I bought, in possibly the whitest move I have ever made, a copy of The Heart of Chicago, 1967-1997. On cassette. At Wal-Mart.

But I fell in love with that greatest hits album. There were the songs I knew Chicago did (“Saturday in the Park”, “Make Me Smile”), songs I knew but I didn’t know Chicago did them (“If You Leave Me Now,” “Beginnings”) and songs I enjoyed, which I hadn’t ever heard before (“Will You Still Love Me?”, “Wishing You Were Here”). I became hooked. The knack for a great melody, the punchy horn lines, the willingness to get political and speak to their times. I loved all that. I sang “Look Away” at karaoke. I learned how to play “Just You’N’Me” on piano. I quit my school’s concert band because our conductor wouldn’t let us play Chicago. (I also quit because I thought marching in uniform was fascist.)

I had to have it all. Slowly, I bought their entire catalog in some form or other. CDs for Christmas and birthdays, cassettes I found in the stacks at Big Lots, and records at garage sales. Every album titled after every roman numeral in existence. I even paid a shady dude $20 for their “lost album” Stone of Sisyphus. And there were concerts. Between 2001 and 2010, I had seen them six times. Including taking my then-girlfriend (who wasn’t a fan) to a show on the night of her college graduation. She immediately thereafter took a summer course in Senegal and broke up with me upon her return. Smart girl.

But none of that mattered. When Chicago was one of only five or six acts I listened to closely, every record seemed….kinda good. Even Chicago 19, drenched in synthesizers, curdled with overproduction, and blighted by Diane Warren ballads. Even Chicago XIII, a manifesto on how democracy can, at its worst, exalt mediocrity. All 8 members wrote songs for the record, unhindered by the fact that only 3 were competent composers. Even saxophonist Walt Parazaider got in on the act with a song called “Window Dreaming” containing lines like “gigs are fun/ when they’re done/ feel so down/ act like a clown.”

But most galling of all was their exclusion from the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. On Chicago message boards (yes, I was a moderator…thanks for asking!) we railed against their long exclusion from the exalted halls of Cleveland. We gnashed our teeth as, year after year, the likes of Brenda Lee or Jimmy Cliff or The Ventures got in before our heroes. We had decided, collectively, that those dummies on the committee just didn’t know good music. It was all rigged against Chicago, a petty feud perpetuated by a jealous Jann Wenner.

In hindsight, I can diagnose the problem clearly: I simply lacked a broad palette of musical experiences by which to judge Chicago. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. If you only listen to 70s Top 40 out of context at the turn of the millennium, of course Chicago will sound good. I liked Chicago because my tastes and experience hadn’t developed to the point where I could evaluate them on their merits. I was the suburban couch potato who thought the Whopper was the best hamburger ever made. I was the undiscerning dittohead who thought Reagan was a great president.

My development as a music listener might have been better off if I had some kind of mentor who could have broadened my musical horizons. An uncle who was into punk and could have me listen without prejudging it. An older brother to hook me onto The Smiths. Maybe if I lived in a more diverse town, I might have gotten an earlier insight into hip-hop, or soul, or latin music. As it is, I had to educate myself, late in my twenties when I was finished with grad school and had the time and headspace to commit to the project. I listened to James Brown performing at The Apollo. To The Talking Heads making use of new tools and a palette of different genres. To Otis Redding singing his heart out. To Joni Mitchell crafting another heartbreaking masterpiece that echoed across Laurel Canyon. And with each new experience, Chicago’s oeuvre seemed a little less special, a bit more like hackwork. And I came to see them as a group that profited- perhaps more than any other artist of the 70s- from our culture’s tendency to exalt white mediocrity while pushing black excellence into the shadows. The same world that bought more Osmond records than Jackson Five records. A world where Mariah Carey can rack up 27 Top Ten hits- almost all of which she wrote- and not be taken seriously as a Rock Hall candidate. Where Green Day got rich whining about suburbia while Nina Simone earned peanuts preaching against injustice. That world.

So, here’s my take on Chicago through the lens of a reluctant maturity: Chicago was a very fine band that put out a few overwrought but ultimately quite good albums during their first few years. Chicago Transit Authority and Chicago V are essential for any quality rock and roll collection. Terry Kath was a somewhat sloppy and unfocused but undoubtedly talented lead guitarist. Danny Seraphine should be on any reputable list of the greatest rock drummers. Peter Cetera was a serviceable singer whose bass lines, at their best, approached the melodicism of McCartney’s. James Pankow was a very capable arranger. While chestnuts are ripe for discovery on some of their other records, the band’s overall output quickly diminished. At first, their refusal to edit bloated double albums into listenable single ones hurt them. Then coke-fueled sessions led them to believe directionless atonal noodling was cutting-edge jazz. Their success deluded them into thinking that anything they could possibly record could be a hit. For a while that was true, but in time, the hits stopped. In a Faustian bargain, they managed a second act in the 80s. But it came at the cost of sidelining their horn section and putting out anonymous power ballads and touring on the oldies circuit. And so, a band with some potential never developed the drive, the soul, the world-sight that every great artist has.

And their fans- at least this one- moved on. Do I hate Chicago? No, of course not. But they have fallen into their most fitting destiny- a solid, perpetually joyful, unchallenging guilty pleasure. In the scheme of things, that’s not a bad legacy either.

I’m ready. Why wait? I realize this post is coming early this year, but I’m comfortable with my predictions, and don’t foresee changing them.

Somewhere in New York City, a group of about two dozen men and women will come together and put together the ballot from which the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame’s Class of 2018 will be chosen. Some of these will be longtime record industry executives. Others will be musicians, critics and other music writers, academics, and even the odd former MTV VeeJay. This post will try and guess who they will choose, based on previous ballots, news stories, and plain old intuition.

The committee deciding this ballot will have been under a certain degree of public pressure. Some progressive and feminist voices have urged the Rock Hall to work harder to induct worthy female acts, most notably the Inspirer series Induct These Women. This isn’t unwarranted; out of the last four years’ 23 performer acts inducted, only three were women. Only four out of nineteen acts nominated last year were women or included women in their lineup. On top of that, the Nominating Committee has to face a hard reality. Baby boomers continue to dominate the ranks of voters, and nearly every 70s classic rock favorite that gets on the ballot will be inducted, usually at the expense of a more significant act that didn’t have the hits (Kraftwerk) or a more deserving act from the 80s or 90s (Nine Inch Nails, Janet Jackson.) On the other hand, there is the faustian bargain with HBO to consider as well. Bigger acts with mass appeal net bigger audiences for the pay-per-view special, a consideration that may have encouraged Chicago, KISS, and Journey’s nominations after years of being snubbed.

My best guess is that the Nom Com will eschew the Seventies Classic Rock feel of the last few years. Part of this is because there aren’t too many no-brainer acts left from that era. We’d all like the Moody Blues or The Cars to get in one day, but other than that, Bad Company, Styx, and EL&P don’t have quite the same urgency as Deep Purple or Yes once did. Frankly, for all the criticism thrown their way, the Rock Hall has chipped away at inducting the most egregious snubs from that era with remarkable efficiency in the last five or six years.

One factor guiding my choices was a trend that I noticed, which may or may not be significant in the end. Unless the Rock Hall is really pushing an artist (think Chic or NWA), most repeat nominees have shown up two out of the last three years. A striking number meet that criteria: The Spinners, Chaka Khan, Nine Inch Nails, The Smiths, The Cars, Yes, Kraftwerk. I will try to guess partly with this trend in mind. Think of it like the three-field rotation system used in fiefdoms across Medieval Europe. Any given piece of land will lay fallow one-third of the time to let the soil rest and replenish its nutrients. Similarly, snubbing an act can generate as much hype (hey! why isn’t so-and-so on the ballot this year?) as nominating them. All this is to say- if an artist has been nominated the last two years in a row, I’m probably giving them a pass this time.

Also complicating this process is that we just don’t know how many acts will be nominated. In the last four years, we’ve had 15 (Class of 2016), 16 (Class of 2014), and even 19 (Class of 2017) artists on the ballot. So, here’s what I’ll do. I’ll list 15 acts that are definitely on my list. #16 will be contingent on their being 16 nominees, #17 if there are 17 nominees, and so on.

Radiohead: This year has been marked for some time as “the one where Radiohead gets in.”  For years, the Rolling Stone Industrial Complex has been drilling OK Computer‘s greatness into our heads. The last time that Rolling Stone’s experts gathered to name the 100 Greatest Artists of All Time, Radiohead placed #73. When VH1, where many other Nom Com members have roots, did the same, Radiohead did even better (#29). All signs suggest that they will be nominated on their first possible ballot; Radiohead’s presence is about as safe a bet as I can imagine.

Janet Jackson: And now, my exception to the three-field rotation theory. I think Janet is one of those acts that the Rock Hall really wants in, and people like Questlove are on hand to make sure that happens. Janet is one of the most significant artists of post-1980 R&B, a pioneer of visual style and production, who also happens to have one of the biggest caches of Top Ten hits of any modern Top 40 artist. The fact that she’s not in is a veritable justice malfunction. Worthy on her own merits, her induction would also alleviate criticisms that the Rock Hall hasn’t been fair to artists of color, women, and post-baby boom acts. Besides, you need a showstopper for the HBO special, and Janet is perhaps the best all-around entertainer on this list.

L.L. Cool J: The Northumbrian Countdown also projects L.L. Cool J to return to the ballot for the first time since the Class of 2014. Since that year, the Hall has not run two hip-hop/rap artists on the same ballot in order to clear the table for NWA, and then 2pac. This leaves L.L. Cool J. remaining as probably the most historically significant rap artist currently eligible. His recent Kennedy Center honors only adds to his renown. As an added bonus, enough time has passed to make people forget about the god-awful “Accidental Racist,” whose only virtue was giving me an example of false equivalency to use in my history classes.

Nine Inch Nails: If the two-thirds theory holds, we can welcome Trent Reznor back on the ballot after a surprising absence last year. Since the ceremony will be held in Cleveland this time around, the Rock Hall will surely not want to miss out on the fantastic optics of nominating this eminent industrial act on its home turf.

Soundgarden: The tragic suicide of Chris Cornell earlier this year is likely to resonate with the Nominating Committee. Both Tom Morello and Dave Grohl knew him well; Grohl through the early grunge scene in Seattle, and Morello through their collaborations in Audioslave. Soundgarden was a solid contender for “the next alternative/grunge act on the docket” even before this sad occurrence. It’s very likely that Morello and Grohl will use their political capital to try and honor their departed friend.

The Zombies: So, this year, one of the only British Invasion bands still touring went out and performed Odessey and Oracle (one of Rolling Stone‘s Top 100 albums of all time, btw) in its entirety, often to packed houses and rave reviews. On top of this, The Zombies got their very own mini-exhibit in the Rock Hall this July (alas, it opened just a week after my own visit!) Given their influence on indie music and mods like The Jam, the Zombies had an outsized significance that belied their short heyday and limited oeuvre.  The Hall wants them in, and so do I.

The Smiths: This is another returning nominee. It seems like the Nom Com has agreed that this band is the 80s alternative choice they will focus on, perhaps at the expense of The Cure and The Replacements. While Grohl’s addition to the Nom Com got most of the attention, I’ll bet you didn’t notice that MTV and VH1’s Sandy Alouete is also aboard now. When she worked at Reprise Records one of her clients was…wait for it…Morrissey. Between this and The Smiths’ appearance on the ballot for 2015 and 2016, I think it’s fair to think they might show up again. Unless Morrissey wore out his welcome with Alouete (and since it is Morrissey we are talking about, that’s entirely possible).

Nina Simone: This is a risky prediction. She isn’t listed on Future Rock Legends’ master list of previously considered artists. Her connection to rock and roll isn’t obvious and requires a bit of historical context and critical thinking. But look at Joan Baez, someone who admitted in her own induction speech that she wasn’t entirely a rock-and-roller. She got in easily the first time she made a ballot, and her influence on Dylan, Joni Mitchell, and every Lilith Fair artist made her selection fairly uncontroversial. Now that Baez is in, I think the Nom Com might pick another woman with outspoken politics, this time a jazz and blues piano player who aligned with Black Pride and stared down the Jim Crow system. Of course, her suitability is enhanced by the vast number of R&B stars who look up to Simone, not the least of which is Beyonce, who put in some Nina ‘easter eggs’ in her Lemonade videos. Just last month, the Turning the Tables project listed her I Put A Spell On You album as the third greatest album by a woman.

War: This may be indicative of nothing, but this multi-racial funk band has been nominated regularly in three-year intervals: 2009, 2012, 2015…and 2018? The Nom Com loves 70s soul; Questlove and many others think highly of them. This is a band that’s easy to nominate, but perhaps hard to induct.

Link Wray: His nomination for the Class of 2014 was greeted with acclaim by rock historians and record collectors, even if he didn’t get in. This 1950s power chord innovator may get another chance, thanks to the impending release of the film Rumble, exploring Native American contributions to popular music. The film boasts involvement from two Nom Com members, Robbie Robertson (who is himself of Mohawk heritage) and Steve Van Zandt.

Warren Zevon: One of the highlights of last year’s ceremony was David Letterman’s speech for Pearl Jam, arranged at the last minute when Neil Young was too ill to do the honors himself. Letterman’s funny, moving panegyric to the famous grunge band ended with a wish that his friend and frequent Late Show guest, Warren Zevon, would be inducted. Letterman might get his wish sooner than he expects. The Hall loves nominating elliptical, but darkly poignant, singer-songwriters: Leonard Cohen, Randy Newman, Tom Waits: all of them were not only got nominated, but inducted with minimal fuss. Happily, Letterman’s maestro, Paul Shaffer, is on the committee and usually serves as music director for the ceremony. He’s in a good position to facilitate werewolves in Cleveland this year.

Roxy Music: There is nothing in the news that suggests this will happen, but geez…it’s got to be one of these years, right?

J. Geils Band. It seems unlikely that the Hall would nominate so many deceased artists, but J. Geils got a nomination last year, so it is unlikely they would be denied after the death of their namesake member. At any rate, the Rock Hall is pretty fond of the blues, so they’d be under consideration even without a visitation from the “death fairy.” The Nom Com often takes a “wait your turn” approach, and it seems J. Geils is somehow ahead of Johnny Winter and John Mayall & the Bluesbreakers in the “white boys playing the blues” queue.

Eurythmics: The need for more women in the Rock Hall could redound to the benefit of Annie Lennox. I considered solo Stevie Nicks for this spot as well, but the Hall loves soul, and few people did more to infuse the sometimes sterile feel of new wave with soulful vocals. Lennox has been fairly visible the last few years, between appearances at the Grammys and an acclaimed album of standards. From their history-making videos, to the overt girl power of “Sisters are Doing It For Themselves,” the Eurythmics tick all the boxes we might associate with likely Rock Hall nominees.

Rage Against the Machine: And I’m bookending my original 15 picks with another act eligible for the first time this year. Here’s what I think will go down: Tom Morello’s philosophy is such that he’ll probably say something like, “it’s bullshit that I get to be on the nominating committee that might put my band in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. It’s also bullshit that Rage Against the Machine could get in before MC5, before Judas Priest, maybe before Nine Inch Nails, and other bands that influenced us. Please- don’t nominate us this year.” I’m willing to bet, though, that someone on the committee makes a case like this: “right now, the machine is in full force. A bloodthirsty form of capitalism is running amok. Bigotry is going unchallenged. Law enforcement is killing unarmed black men in the name. We need Rage Against the Machine now, more than ever.” And I’m willing to bet that Morello relents.

So those are my predictions if there are fifteen nominees, the historical norm for the last decade or so. But if there are sixteen, add The Shangri-Las. While fellow-girl group The Marvelettes have been nominated before, The Shangri-Las probably have more contemporary relevance, and at any rate, Marvelettes supporters were likely the sort of committee members who got axed in the Great Purge of 2015. The Shangri-Las had a darker, more serious edge to them, influencing Amy Winehouse, Blondie, and countless others.

If there’s seventeen, add Moody Blues. It’s astonishing that they haven’t been nominated before. While there’s little to suggest any real movement in their favor this year, the Rock Hall’s trend of nominating popular hitmakers from the 1960s, 70s, and 80s is undeniable. I am really loathe to predict this band- not because I don’t like them, but because their presence would almost certainly block a Zombies induction.

Eighteen nominees? Make it The Spinners. Cliff Burnstein, a known advocate of theirs, remains on the committee, and are enjoyed by Questlove as well. My two-thirds guideline would also predict a return nomination by The Spinners.

And if last year’s total of nineteen nominees is repeated, my final prediction would be PJ Harvey.  It’s a stretch- she also seems to have not been considered before by the committee, but then, she only became eligible last year. One possible advocate to look for would be Lenny Kaye. Kaye was a member of the Patti Smith Group, and Harvey is one of the more important heirs to Smith’s legacy. Critics such as those on the committee have usually held PJ Harvey in great esteem, and when Rolling Stone met to determine the 500 Greatest Albums of All Time, an eyebrow-raising three of them were hers. (To emphasize how impressive that is, consider that Elvis, Madonna, The Clash, Marvin Gaye, and Michael Jackson also had three albums on the list.)

So those are my best guesses for the ballot this year. Remember, these are merely who I ~think~ will be nominated, not my picks for the most deserving of the honor. All told, I think this would be a strong ballot if it happened, although some would decry its lack of pure classic rock.  Even with 19 picks at my disposal, though, there were many other artists I wish I could have included. I don’t have any country, or heavy metal, or true punk artists on the list. I’m also worried that there are too many deceased artists among my projections.  Simone, Wray, Zevon, Chris Cornell, J. Geils, and all but one classic-era Spinner are gone. And it pained me to leave off Devo (which shares NIN’s Ohio origins), Depeche Mode, Foreigner, Carole King, Kraftwerk, Joe Cocker, Judas Priest, A Tribe Called Quest, and lots of others.

What do you think of my predictions? If this were actually the ballot, I’d probably vote for Nina Simone, The Zombies, The Spinners, Janet Jackson, and Eurythmics. But the six artists who would get inducted would probably be Radiohead, Janet, Nina, Moody Blues, Nine Inch Nails, and LL Cool J.

In the weeks ahead, keep your eyes peeled for other predictions- most of the other Rock Hall watchers are listed on my blogroll, and their writings are definitely worth a look. When the ballot is finally announced sometime in October, I hope you’ll revisit the Countdown as we pick it apart and try to guess who will be inducted.