It’s time to rustle up some cattle, put on our ten-gallon hat, and eat us some Frito pie for our annual Rock Hall rodeo roundup. This has become an annual tradition on this blog, where I explore each of the nominees in turn, looking at their likelihood of induction, worthiness of induction, and my own personal preferences among the artists. This year, I will make bold to add a fourth category–which artists are best for the Rock Hall’s bottom line— getting asses into seats for the ceremony, getting viewership of the HBO special, improving the Rock Hall’s public image, or encouraging visitors to come to Cleveland.
No time to waste, you jive turkeys.
Pat Benatar (Likelihood: 4; Worthiness: 6; Preference: 2; Bottom Line: 4): I am psyched about this nomination. I love Pat, and wish dearly that I had taken the time to see her when she was on tour and in my part of upstate New York last summer. In terms of kick-ass rock and roll women, she’s a strong contender; in fact, I would have put her in before Joan Jett. I’ll be the first to admit that long-term influence and innovation are lacking, unless we’re willing to consider the dramatic power of some of her music videos. She made some of the best 1980s commercially friendly rock–full stop. Benatar is also likely to get in this year; she sits atop the fan vote as of this writing, and she is a pick that both rockists and those of us wanting more women in the Hall can agree on.
Dave Matthews Band (Likelihood: 12; Worthiness: 12; Preference: 4; Bottom Line: 9). And…the nomination that shocked the world. If you are wondering why Dave Matthews isn’t last in the worthiness category, here’s my case. Seminal jam band from the golden age of jam bands; 25 years of selling out concerts especially at outdoor venues. Longevity of relevance. One of the only jam bands to have achieved multiple songs in the wider public consciousness and enjoy a critical mass of female fans. I understand why Rock Hall watchers and music writers more generally reacted viscerally to the news that they were on the ballot. Like some artists…Rush, KISS, Phish…it’s difficult to separate the band itself from their tedious advocates. Dave Matthews Band fans tend to have been business-majoring frat boys at state colleges who ended up becoming middle management at Lyft. When police pull them over for speeding, they ignore the fragrance of mary jane coming from the glove compartment and let them go on their way. They own multiple hackey sacks. Thankfully, the folks who attend their concerts aren’t on the ballot–the DMB itself is. I upped their likelihood to 12 on the off chance that they motivate their stoner base and do well in the fan vote. One of only two artists among the nominees to have had a song on one of my 39 Alex’s Mix CDs (“What Would You Say?” and “Grey Street” in case you were wondering.). Anyway, in nominating DMB the Rock Hall did their demographic research in at least one respect: their fans may not be the sorts of people to go to a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, and this attention may possibly change that.
Depeche Mode (Likelihood: 5; Worthiness: 4; Preference: 8; Bottom Line: 6): The Cure’s induction was a tremendous omen for Depeche Mode. A British alternative act from the late 80s and early 90s that explored introspective themes while filling stadiums? Now that The Cure broke down the artificial “80s alternative” barrier, Depeche Mode stands a terrific chance. You could argue that they shouldn’t get in before Kraftwerk, and you wouldn’t be wrong exactly, but their significance as an electronic act that was wildly popular needs to be taken into consideration. Since the Crue or Cher or Willie Nelson didn’t get nominated, there’s a good chance they will headline the class and close out the show in Cleveland.
Doobie Brothers (Likelihood: 1; Worthiness: 8; Preference: 1; Bottom Line: 2): It finally happened– The Doobie Brothers are nominees. You can credit Irving Azoff if you wish, but the truth is, we’ll never know the hand he played or did not play. They would have been deserving candidates in any respect. Even in a group of nominees that’s a bit more classic rock heavy, they shouldn’t have any problems getting in. They are doing just fine on the fan vote, which at least positively correlates to induction. (Remember rule #1 of social science research: correlation is not causation!) It’s even possible they may overtake Pat Benatar for the top spot. Their secret weapon, of course, is Michael McDonald. Now that yacht rock is enjoying an irony-fueled comeback, the Doobies’ second act of their long career is no longer a liability. Besides, McDonald is the platonic ideal of a backup singer and has deep connections in the music industry that can’t hurt their chances. I look forward to their reunion with Big Mac during the ceremony– which is one surefire way to get Boomers to watch it on HBO.
Whitney Houston (Likelihood: 3; Worthiness: 5; Preference: 9; Bottom Line: 1). The pundits were right: Janet Jackson’s induction presaged Whitney Houston’s nomination. Houston is by far the most commercially successful artist nominated this year; she dominated singles and album charts from the mid 1980s and early 1990s. Many of those songs, in my opinion, have not aged well, with twinkly synths and vocal histrionics. But it’s hard to deny Whitney Houston– her success, her impact, her role as reigning diva of her time, her controlled melisma. She’s not in the top five of the fan vote, but holding her own– a feat considering how badly others in her wheelhouse have fared in years past. Moreover, the Rock Hall probably wants this to happen. It will deflect some of the all-too-deserving criticism about too few female and/or black inductees. And it has the potential for all kinds of memorable moments: Bobby Brown’s tearful acceptance speech. A tender performance by Cissy Houston and Dionne Warwick. Dolly Parton doing “I Will Always Love You” or Chaka Khan doing “I’m Every Woman” which will generate new buzz about their own Rock Hall candidacies. I’m just a bit skittish because Janet Jackson took three tries to get in. It shouldn’t matter, though–they were merely similar in that they were black women whose commercial peaks happened to coincide, even as they worked in different genres and put out vastly different records. New jack swing was perhaps a hard sell to some people, and Whitney’s tragic death alters the calculus. She should breeze right in.
Judas Priest (Likelihood: 13; Worthiness: 2; Preference: 10; Bottom Line: 8). According to Alan Light, this band tanked in the vote total when they were last nominated two years ago, even as they did quite well in the fan vote. They are just barely in the top 5 now, which cannot hurt their chances. What does hurt them, however, is the presence of another metal band, Motorhead. Priest deserves priority, in my opinion, but Motorhead at least seems a more sentimental choice, given the residual affection for Lemmy. I don’t even like metal that much, and I’m voting for Judas Priest in the fan vote; they are an indispensable band in a pivotal sub-genre. But that’s the issue, isn’t it? Bands usually get in the hall when they have transcendence— earning respect and admiration outside of a narrow demographic. Love for Judas Priest runs deep, but not especially wide. However, they have always been respectful in their attitude toward the Hall rather than acting like induction is their birthright– a strategy that clearly worked for The Zombies. Anyway, the Judas Priest and Motorhead nominations are an olive branch to the metal community, whether they were intended that way or not. Even if neither gets in–a very real possibility–the Rock Hall has cleverly foisted responsibility on those pesky official voters.
Kraftwerk (Likelihood: 11; Worthiness: 1; Preference: 5; Bottom Line: 15). Kraftwerk, of course, was the sine qua non in the history of electronic music. Their stuff lives on in hip-hop samples and indirectly in the influence they continue to have over acts like LCD Soundsystem and Daft Punk. Standard boilerplate over–I wish we could see the official vote count each year. I also wish we knew who exactly was on the voting committee–because that might tell us a lot. Are these teutons bringing up the rear every year or do they have a fighting chance? How many music writers and critics are given the ballot–and how old are they? This kind of information would be invaluable for gauging whether they are a hopeless case, a long shot, or a legitimate contender. One other consideration too important to ignore–with lots of HBO money on the line, it’s hard to see how a Kraftwerk induction helps their “bottom line.” With no household names and no songs your aunt would know, they wouldn’t exactly inspire indifferent viewers to tune in and pay up.
MC5: (Likelihood: 16; Worthiness: 13; Preference: 12; Bottom Line: 14). Give it up, guys. They aren’t getting in. I get it– they set the table for punk music, John Landau produced some of their records, Sonic Youth is named after their guitarist, important band among alternative and punk musicians. And you know– that’s a fine case! I liked MC5 more than I thought I would when I did the deep listening for the 100 Rock Hall Prospects project on my blog, even though I think I overrated them. Even as the lone true 60s act on the ballot, and even without fellow iconoclasts in Rage Against the Machine competing for space, an induction is still the longest of long shots.
Motorhead (Likelihood: 15; Worthiness: 9; Preference: 13; Bottom Line: 11). As I said in my initial reactions, it’s puzzling that they ended up on a ballot with Judas Priest– that’s two metal acts when other years have zero. It’s also not clear how Motorhead would translate to the induction ceremony. The three members who played on their most famous records are all deceased. There’s no question that Dave Grohl could give a great induction speech and sub for Lemmy, but it wouldn’t quite be the same.
Nine Inch Nails (Likelihood: 7, Worthiness: 3; Preference: 15; Bottom Line: 3). They may not be my cup of tea, but the enduring quality, significance, and innovation of Nine Inch Nails needs to be acknowledged. After three years off the ballot, they are back! They bring a solid fanbase to the proceedings– yet for some reason they are struggling in the fan vote at its early stages, despite performing well in the past. One intangible–and a significant reason why I have them ranked third in “the bottom line” is that inducting Trent Reznor in Cleveland, a city where he has deep roots, can make for an emotionally resonant evening. Having said all this, I still think NIN may fall just short.
Notorious B.I.G. (Likelihood: 2, Worthiness: 11, Preference: 16, Bottom Line: 7). A Singaporean former student of mine once described me as “not just white, but neon white.” So this is the most neon white thing I’ve ever said on my blog: I don’t understand why Biggie is such a big deal. He released one album while he was alive (although–hypocrisy alert– The Zombies didn’t do much more in their heyday and I still supported them). What little I have listened to doesn’t sound especially good, or edifying, or thoughtful. I’m not a rap guy, but I could appreciate what made NWA or 2pac significant artists who got in soon after their eligibility window opened. I’ve read why lots of others think Biggie matters, but so far I haven’t been convinced. So an open invitation to my readers: convince me. I’m willing to keep myself open to a persuasive argument for why Biggie deserves to be a first-year-eligible hall of famer. Anyway, my opinion doesn’t matter. John Sykes and Greg Harris have made it clear that this is Biggie’s year in a way that I haven’t seen the Hall blatantly promote since Nirvana six years ago. They’d have to be pretty damn sure he was getting in to talk like that.
Rufus, feat. Chaka Khan (Likelihood: 10; Worthiness: 10; Preference: 7; Bottom Line: 10). This nomination’s patron saint is St. Jude, benefactor of hopeless causes. Having become “the new Chic”–the 70s R&B act that can’t get over the hump–Chaka Khan, this time with bandmates Rufus, returns to the ballot. There’s still an outside chance she will get in, but that’s partly because the ballot has very few women and very few R&B artists. On the other hand, it’s been a minute since two black women were inducted the same year, and I don’t think it will happen this time. I’m voting for Rufus anyway, partly in hopes that we’ll get another profane speech by Chicago drummer Danny Seraphine, who cowrote several songs with keyboardist David “Hawk” Wolinski.
Todd Rundgren (Likelihood: 9; Worthiness: 15; Preference: 3; Bottom Line: 16). Hey, remember that time last year when we all predicted Todd Rundgren would get in, but we were wrong? Fun times. Well, Todd is back. I have a soft spot in my heart for him; I’ve seen him live twice (most recently two weeks ago on his White Album tribute), and he’s the only person named Todd that I’m aware of who I don’t want to smack upside the head. Rundgren missed my original Top 100 Rock Hall Prospects by a whisker (he was my final cut), but I think I overrated him even so. See, Rundgren has respect in the music industry, and I think a lot of us are confusing respect with greatness or influence. He’s produced a flotilla of great records (which his nomination as an artist shouldn’t cover, at least in theory), wrote a handful of songs that remain on classic rock radio, but he didn’t really fundamentally change the game, nor was he a massive commercial success like Chicago or Journey to compensate. To make matters worse, he’s doing significantly worse in the fan ballot out of the gate this year, placing a pitiful eleventh in a metric where classic rock habitually overachieves. Finally, there’s the plain reality that he just isn’t going to show up. Ringo sweet talking him into it is the only scenario where I see that playing out; his reaction to his nomination was “no comment” and he’s talked liberally about his contempt for the institution. So he ranks last in the “Bottom Line” category: the only thing more disastrous for ratings than a Motorhead tribute without Lemmy is a Todd Rundgren tribute without Todd Rundgren.
Soundgarden (Likelihood: 8; Worthiness: 14; Preference: 14; Bottom Line: 5). What to think of Soundgarden’s nomination? I’ll say this: they were an act that lots of people wanted to see on the ballot, and they have novelty in their favor as first-time nominees. And they are pulling third in the fan vote at the moment. But in terms of wider public sentiment, they aren’t household names like first-year-eligible inductees Nirvana and Pearl Jam. Give the issues that deserving alternative bands have had in past years, I have trouble seeing Soundgarden get in, although if they do, it’s a strong signal to us late thirty-somethings that the Rock Hall is taking our era seriously. (For this reason, I put them fifth in the Bottom Line category.) I guess Chris Cornell getting a posthumous tribute and Aretha Franklin not getting one was more revealing than we realized at the time. I ranked them 14th in worthiness, but don’t read too much into that. Basically, #5-#15 in my Worthiness ranking are just different shades of “Deserving but not absolutely essential yet”. Does that make me a bad 90s kid?
T. Rex (Likelihood: 6; Worthiness: 7; Preference: 6; Bottom Line: 12). If you subscribed to the theory that one “spot” on the ballot yields to another artist in that same wheelhouse…then you might have guessed T. Rex would take Roxy Music’s place on the ballot. In the “I can’t believe they’ve never even been nominated” category up until last week, T. Rex stands a very decent chance at induction. Being classic rock never hurt anyone’s chances. And while not nearly as influential as Roxy Music, they still have a large footprint, having influenced The Smiths, Soft Cell, Noel Gallagher, and Devendra Banhart, among many others. Stylistically, Marc Bolan’s lapels, sequins, and jackets created a timeless look, and Bolan’s particular form of masculinity which fueled T-Rextasy is very much back in style. On the other hand, they are floundering in 13th place on the fan vote–which should cater to their strengths–, were much bigger in Britain than they were in the UK, and it’s not clear who would show up to perform. T. Rex is like the inverse of Spinal Tap, where everyone except the revolving door of drummers is dead.
Thin Lizzy (Likelihood: 14; Worthiness: 16; Preference: 11; Bottom Line: 13). For me, Thin Lizzy was a bigger puzzlement than the Dave Matthews Band. I had a very friendly commentator try to sell me on them when I did my Top 100 Rock Hall Prospects a few years ago, but I’m just not persuaded. I don’t see the significance. They were Irish, but so what? They incorporated a few folk elements and made a hit of “Whisky in the Jar”, but if merging the folk tradition of the British Isles is your priority, why not just nominate Fairport Convention? They are the only act (aside from Biggie who wasn’t eligible at the time) that wasn’t seriously considered for my Top 100 Rock Hall Prospects at any time. Moreover, even their signature song, “The Boys are Back in Town” is an albatross– those verses about “crazy stuff that one chick did” haven’t aged well. If you like Thin Lizzy, that’s great! I’m genuinely glad. I like lots of bands that have no business being in the Rock Hall– America, for example. And Thin Lizzy is squarely in that category. Having said that, they are still infinitely more deserving than Motley Crue.
